On Wednesday, August 23, 2023, at 6:11 pm local time over Moscow, 12 minutes after take-off, a private jet lost contact with the ground. The jet was carrying seven passengers, one of whom was Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the Russian mercenary group PMC Wagner. His second-in-command, Dmitry Utkin, was also onboard. Reports indicated that the plane suffered some sort of break-up in midair, consistent with an explosion. If these reports are true, it is almost undeniable that the explosion was deliberate and ordered by Vladimir Putin or one of his associates.
PMC Wagner is infamous in Eastern Europe and around the world. The group first saw serious action during the War for Donbas in 2014, where they fought alongside Russian forces to seize the region. They have been involved in many operations throughout the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and from 2022 through 2023, they have been a huge support to Russian offensives, being Russia’s main assault force during the Battle of Bakhmut. They have grown from a strength of 250 members in 2014, to over 200 times that in December of 2022. A force this large losing its leader and many significant figures will lead to confusion inside the organization and a stalling of their activities.
But why would Putin order the killing of Prigozhin if his mercenary group has been so effective in Ukraine? To answer that question, one must remember June 23, the date of the Wagner Group’s infamous rebellion. Prigozhin had long been a critic of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, as well as Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, blaming them for incompetence and several military failures that date back to the start of the war. Prigozhin released a video stating that the Russian military’s justifications for the invasion of Ukraine were lies, and Wagner began to advance rapidly through Russian territory. They seized Rostov-on-Don and much of the Voronezh Oblast, skirmishing against Russian troops, before marching to Moscow. However, before they could reach the Kremlin, a peace deal was brokered by Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, ending the rebellion in a day. Despite the peaceful resolution, the incident cemented Prigozhin and his Wagner Group as a threat to Putin’s power, and in authoritarian countries, threats to the leader’s power never last long.
After the report of the plane crash, Wagner supporters immediately flocked to accuse Putin, who has remained silent on the topic. However, due to the track record of the president’s political opponents mysteriously disappearing, there are few doubts about who is to blame. This incident will most certainly send ripples throughout Wagner’s power structure, and will most definitely lead to a weakening of the Russian military.
Prigozhin’s body has not yet been identified, meaning his death cannot be confirmed at the time. This has led some to believe that his death was faked, or that he somehow survived. Nevertheless, many of these are simply speculation, and the most likely possibility is that Prigozhin is dead. Despite his presumed death, his legacy in Eastern Europe will continue to impact its people, and his mercenary group will most likely continue activities, although weakened and disorganized.
